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I have procrastinated on writing this summary. Our second questionnaire sought data on the current state of staffing and recruiting for restaurants. (For those who missed the first summary, there are 25 respondents to these questionnaires, representing thousands of restaurant units in all segments.) I wanted to write something profound and perceptive about the labor crisis that restaurants are experiencing. I wanted to write something that hasn’t been written already. But I have no new answers, no new insights.
By now, most everyone is aware of the scarcity of candidates for open restaurant positions. The reasons are numerous, including concern about COVID infection, lack of childcare options keeping people home, ease of obtaining unemployment benefits and relocation to areas of the country where cost of living is lower or where job opportunities are more lucrative. But the most significant reason appears to be that many have abandoned the restaurant industry as no longer a reliable and consistent way to make a living. Even the most conscientious of restaurateurs had to furlough or layoff team members at some point during the pandemic, some by choice, more because of municipal mandates on how restaurants could operate. Of those restaurant workers who were able to remain employed throughout the pandemic, most tipped employees saw a decline in earnings from lower sales resulting in lower tips and a decrease in hours worked, which impacted non-tipped employees as well.
Here’s the data on how our group is seeing the situation;
Finally, as restaurateurs grapple with the need to adjust to the shortage of eligible workers, here’s a sampling of some of the comments from our respondents;
My two cents? Between the effect of COVID on the industry and the social forces that have been at play for some time, I believe that the basic operating practices of the restaurant industry will undergo dramatic change over the next five years.
In order to bring people back into the industry, restaurants and all food service employment, will have to increase wages and benefits. Service charges will become standard practice in full service restaurants, while the very highest-end restaurants will continue to build service into the price of their menus. More casual restaurants will adopt technology (e.g. self-ordering on your phone) to reduce labor. In the not too distant future, tipping in the US will resemble the European practice of a small token of appreciation for a job well-done but the standardized 20% gratuity will already be included as a service charge.
Thought or comments you want to share? Please do!
It’s no secret that restaurants, especially independent and full-service restaurants, have been hit hard by the pandemic. And as common in distress situations, with crisis comes advice from all corners. Unfortunately, a lot of the advice being offered is not so good. Like the recent article featured in a prominent trade publication titled “How Restaurants Can Survive the Next Three Months” and then goes on to recommend “laying off your staff” as if that hadn’t been done early on. Or an earlier article that recommended the path to surviving the pandemic as “…maintain your maximum legal occupancy rate.” Or the dozens of articles recommending pivots of products and services with very few of them recognizing the investment, both financial and in energy, incurred in making such adjustments. Maybe the most egregious advice was the financial guru who advised against restaurateurs considering bankruptcy, because as he erroneously stated “It’s unlikely fees will be less than a quarter of a million dollars and oftentimes more.” and in doing so, may have deterred some people from the only financial protection they have.
So rather than shrug it off, I decided that with help from a lot of friends, we could gather and distribute some solid advice from restaurateurs and others who are dealing with the effects of the pandemic daily. More than 25 people including restaurateurs, chefs, foodservice suppliers, real estate consultants, financial service professionals, marketing and PR wizards, adult beverage distributors, investors, franchisors, franchisees, hospitality consultants (like me) and hospitality investors, agreed to participate.
Now seems a particularly good time to reach out to those who might need advice. With accelerated distribution of vaccines and the Restaurant Revival Fund enacted by Congress, it appears that this is a positive turning point for restaurants, especially independents and small franchise groups, providing the opportunity to regroup and restart.
Our charge is to address one particularly relevant issue affecting the industry each month with the goal of offering some helpful insights and paths to help others deal with the problem that they might be currently facing. While 25 people is hardly a scientific sampling size, the group represents and works with thousands of restaurant units with deep connections in the industry. And so, while our results can be better called anecdotal evidence, it does provide a good indicator of the industry at-large.
The first question we’ve addressed is “accrued rent.” Our results indicate the majority of restaurants are facing significant back rent. While business is going to get better with warm weather (more outside dining available) and Restaurant Revival Funds are going to help struggling businesses, both increased business and RRF grants are going to compel landlords to demand payment.
Here are some quick numbers collated from the responses provided by the group. Please note that because many of the respondents represent multiple locations, most answers total to greater than 100% as those respondents typically have multiple answers to the same question.
Now, here’s the part that my colleagues and I hope is helpful. All the respondents responded that the most important aspect of dealing with back rent is communicating with the landlord.
100% of respondents offered the following –
Finally, the respondents were asked for predictions about the industry if the pandemic continues throughout 2021. Of course, the answers were not very optimistic with most predicting significant closures and conversion of full-service restaurants to a fast-casual model in order to survive. Several cited both the financial and psychological impact as untenable. Fortunately, dramatic changes have occurred in just the few weeks since the questionnaire went out. Optimism is high for the economy in general (Goldman Sachs is predicting 8% economic expansion comparing Q4 ’20 with Q4 ’21) and for restaurants spurred by increased vaccinations, relaxing of operating restrictions and the economic relief offered by the newest stimulus bill.
We’ll provide more insights on this and other topics each month (next topic is staffing and employment as restaurant’s gear up for increases in business.)
My sincere thanks to all the respondents. See you next month!